Do Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Converge to Zero? (2024)

FAQs

Do Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Converge to Zero? ›

Over the long-term, inverse ETFs with high levels of leverage, i.e., the funds that deliver three times the opposite returns, tend to converge to zero (Carver 2009 ).

This shows that the potential for both profit and loss can be magnified with leveraged inverse ETFs. It is also important to note that leverage also means it is possible that a leveraged inverse ETF can go to zero or near zero with a large enough daily move in the price of the underlying asset or index.

This implies that given these assumptions and enough time, the value of an investment in leveraged and inverse ETFs will eventually converge to zero with near certainty.

For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.

In other words, you could potentially be liable for more than you invested because you bought the position on leverage. But can a leveraged ETF go negative? No. If you own a leveraged ETF you can't lose more than your initial investment amount.

Leveraged ETF prices tend to decay over time, and triple leverage will tend to decay at a faster rate than 2x leverage. As a result, they can tend toward zero.

Because they rebalance daily, leveraged ETFs usually never lose all of their value. They can, however, fall toward zero over time. If a leveraged ETF approaches zero, its manager typically liquidates its assets and pays out all remaining holders in cash.

Leveraged ETFs amplify daily returns and can help traders generate outsized returns and hedge against potential losses. A leveraged ETF's amplified daily returns can trigger steep losses in short periods of time, and a leveraged ETF can lose most or all of its value.

The value of an ETF, including QQQ, is determined by its net asset value (NAV). The NAV is calculated by dividing the total value of the fund's assets by the number of outstanding shares. As long as the underlying assets of QQQ hold value, it is highly unlikely for the ETF to go to zero.

Leveraged ETFs decay due to the compounding effect of daily returns, volatility of the market and the cost of leverage. The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.

What happens to my ETF if Vanguard fails? ›

If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.

Like any business, even low-cost ETFs need to generate revenue to cover their costs. Like any business, even low-cost ETFs need to generate revenue to cover their costs. Plenty of ETFs fail to garner the assets necessary to cover these costs and, consequently, ETF closures happen regularly.

ETFs are most often linked to a benchmarking index, meaning that they are often not designed to outperform that index. Investors looking for this type of outperformance (which also, of course, carries added risks) should perhaps look to other opportunities.

Investors who wish to hold inverse ETFs for periods exceeding one day must actively manage and rebalance their positions to mitigate compounding risk. The effect of compounding returns becomes more conspicuous during periods of high market turbulence.

Inverse ETFs aren't for long term investors since they are designed to be held for a period of not more than a day.

The SQQQ is meant to be held intraday and is not a long-term investment, where expenses and decay will quickly eat into returns.

Inverse ETFs are designed for speculative traders and investors seeking tactical day trades against their respective underlying indexes. For example, an inverse ETF that tracks the inverse performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index would reflect a loss of 1% for every 1% gain of the index.

Short-Term Products

Investors can hold the ETF for longer than a day, but returns can vary significantly from 2x exposure over longer periods. That's because the ETF resets its leverage daily. In oscillating markets, the leverage reset can significantly erode returns. A lot.

A leveraged ETF's price can theoretically go negative, but it's extremely rare and usually only happens in extreme market conditions. Leveraged ETFs use financial leverage to amplify the returns of an underlying asset, such as the S&P 500 Index.